NEW ZEALAND HARVEST 2026
🍇 2026 NZ wine harvest
The 2026 vintage was significantly smaller: about 440,000 tonnes, down 15% from 2025. That wasn't necessarily bad news—the industry had been carrying excess supply, so the smaller crop brings production closer to actual market demand.
At the same time, NZ wine exports performed strongly:
NZ$2.108bn export value in the year to June 2026
306.2m litres exported
Export value up around 8%
Sauvignon Blanc remains the dominant variety, with Marlborough accounting for roughly 73% of planted vineyard area.
So the key story is less wine being produced, but demand/export performance holding up well.
🔮 2027 vintage — this is the interesting bit
I'd describe 2027 as potentially very good for quality, but with considerably higher weather risk.
The big concern is El Niño. Earth Sciences NZ says a strong/very strong El Niño is now established and is expected to influence NZ weather into 2027. It tends to mean drier conditions in eastern areas, including important wine regions, while western/southern areas can be wetter and windier.
That creates two opposing effects:
Positive 🍷
Dry conditions can be excellent for grape ripening.
Less rainfall near harvest can reduce disease pressure.
Lower yields can produce concentrated fruit.
The industry is already moving toward better supply/demand balance.
Risk ⚠️
Drought/water stress, particularly in Marlborough and Hawke's Bay.
Strong winds/föhn conditions.
Potentially smaller bunches and lower yields.
If heat becomes excessive, acidity and freshness could become an issue.
My expectation for 2027
2026 | 2027 outlook | |
Crop size | ↓ 15% | Probably restrained |
Sauvignon Blanc | Good | Good–very good potential |
Pinot Noir | Good potential | Potentially excellent |
Chardonnay | Good | Interesting upside |
Disease pressure | Mixed | Could be lower if dry |
Drought risk | Moderate | High |
Grape prices | Under pressure | Potentially firmer |
Wine stocks | Too high previously | Improving |
Overall | Difficult but balancing | Cautiously optimistic |
One particularly important point: the 2027 crop isn't expected to simply bounce back to the huge 2025 level. Earlier MPI forecasts had projected around 498,000 tonnes for 2027, but those forecasts pre-date the latest El Niño developments and the actual 2026 result.
If you're looking at this from a vineyard/grower perspective, I'd actually focus less on total NZ wine exports and more on Marlborough grape prices, yields per hectare, Sauvignon Blanc supply, and whether the 2027 El Niño produces drought stress. Those will tell you much more about profitability.
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