(Bulk Wine Focus)

National Overview

Following two difficult vintages, Italy’s 2025 grape harvest is expected to show further recovery. The 2023 harvest was a historical low (38.3 million hl, down 23%) due to widespread downy mildew and climate extremes. In 2024, volume rebounded to around 41 million hl (+7%), though still 12–13% below the 5-year average.

2025 is on track to reach ~43–45 million hl, approaching Italy’s “ideal” output, provided August doesn’t bring new weather shocks. Grape quality is projected to be good to excellent across most regions, with low disease pressure so far. However, Italy still faces wine stock surpluses due to weak domestic consumption and slowed exports, prompting anti-crisis measures like yield caps and vineyard planting freezes in some areas.

Regional Summaries (Bulk Wine Focus)

🇮🇹 Puglia

• 2023: Production collapsed >40%, lowest in decades.

• 2024: Continued drought caused very small berry size (30–50% reduction).

• 2025 Outlook:

  • Volume may improve slightly, but remains below normal due to persistent drought and low water reserves.

  • Quality could be good to very good where managed carefully, but high pH and sugar levels from heat stress raise concerns.

  • Measures: DOC Primitivo di Manduria froze new plantings through 2030 to manage surplus risk.

🇮🇹 Sicily

• Trend: Harvests have declined for years; 2024 output ~50% below decade average.

• 2025 Outlook:

  • Volume stable or slightly up from 2024 (~2.5M hl) if vines cope with ongoing drought.

  • Harvest began mid-July (earliest in Italy) due to heat-accelerated ripening.

  • Quality expected to be high, with careful, early harvesting key to preserving freshness and balance.

  • Coastal and hillside vineyards (e.g., around Etna) performing best.

🇮🇹 Veneto

• Italy’s top-producing region (~11–12M hl/year).

• 2023–24: Managed to avoid severe losses; quick rebound in 2024.

• 2025 Outlook:

  • Strong yield expected, with healthy canopies and low disease pressure.

  • Early July rains helped offset June’s heatwave; ripening is progressing evenly.

  • Quality looks excellent, especially for Prosecco and Pinot Grigio.

  • Demand is strong; Prosecco bottling in June 2025 was up 12.6% vs. 2024.

🇮🇹 Emilia-Romagna

• 2023–24: Floods in Romagna caused local damage, but region-wide output held firm (~6.6M hl).

• 2025 Outlook:

  • High yields likely, especially for Lambrusco and Trebbiano, thanks to favorable spring weather.

  • To avoid glut, DOC/IGT consortia imposed grape-to-wine yield caps (from 80% to 75%) and volume storage rules for overproduction.

  • Quality outlook: good to very good, with ripe, balanced grapes and low disease incidence.

Production Trends & Comparison

• Bulk wine oversupply remains a risk in the north (e.g., Veneto, Emilia), where production is rebounding fast.

• Southern regions (Puglia, Sicily) still face drought constraints, limiting full volume recovery.

• Quality is a bright spot, thanks to resilient vineyard practices and early disease prevention.

Final Takeaways

• Puglia and Sicily: Better than 2023, but still volume-limited. Good quality expected with close ripening management.

• Veneto and Emilia-Romagna: Expect solid yields and very good quality, though regulatory caps are in place to manage oversupply risk.

• Nationally, 2025 could restore Italy’s balance between quality and volume — but with full tanks and soft demand, wine sector policy remains cautious.