France, Harvest Outlook 2025, Focus Bulk Wine

Harvest in Provence , John Malkovich

France’s 2025 wine harvest is anticipated to rebound from 2024’s historically low volume, which fell to around 37–39 million hectoliters due to mildew, frost, and hail. In contrast, 2023's output reached nearly 48 Mhl. Provided late-season weather remains stable, 2025 could return to average national production levels around 44–46 Mhl. This rebound is especially critical for the bulk wine sector, which has been under intense economic pressure.

Regional Outlook for Bulk Wine

Languedoc-Roussillon: As France’s leading bulk wine-producing region, Languedoc-Roussillon is cautiously optimistic. Winter rains replenished groundwater, and flowering progressed evenly. However, a massive wildfire in Aude (the largest in 70 years) damaged hundreds of hectares, especially in areas where vineyards had been uprooted. Despite this, much of the region expects near-normal yields. Languedoc bulk wine, especially Vin de France and IGP, will play a decisive role in overall volume recovery.

Bordeaux: Bordeaux’s output in 2024 was only 3.3 Mhl—the smallest in over 30 years. Weather challenges and vineyard grubbing contributed to a 14% drop from 2023. In 2025, while acreage is still reduced, vine health has improved and mildew pressure remains low. Provided stable harvest conditions, Bordeaux could recover to 3.5–4 Mhl. The Bordeaux Wine Council hopes this tighter supply will support modest price recovery in the bulk segment.

Provence & Rhône Valley: Provence and the Southern Rhône suffered frost and mildew losses in 2024 but are on track for significant recovery. Growers report excellent vine health and balanced maturation. If late-summer weather cooperates, these areas could see a double-digit increase in output over last year, contributing notably to bulk rosé and red wine volumes.

Climate Change Impacts

Drought and Heat: Southern France continues to face frequent droughts and high temperatures. While regenerative practices have helped reduce losses, unirrigated vineyards remain vulnerable. 2025 has seen improved conditions, though a brief June heatwave temporarily stalled vine development.

Excess Rain and Mildew: Years like 2023–2024 saw record rainfall and major mildew outbreaks. Though 2025’s growing season has been drier and more balanced, the threat of late-season rain remains. Mildew-sensitive and organic vineyards are particularly at risk in wet years.

Wildfires: The Aude fire highlighted the unintended consequences of vineyard uprooting—fewer vines meant less natural firebreak. Remaining vineyards helped contain the blaze, but local growers expect devastating losses in 2025. Smoke taint and reduced vine density could lower both volume and quality.

Market Conditions

Domestic Consumption: French wine consumption continues to decline, with red wine facing the steepest drop. Young consumers are drinking less wine, and budget-conscious buyers are shifting to other beverages. This has left large volumes of bulk wine unsold.

Exports: France's bulk wine exports have struggled. 2023 saw a 9.4% drop in volume shipped. New 2025 U.S. tariffs on EU wine (10%) could further reduce competitiveness, especially for Bordeaux.

Bulk Pricing: Prices for Vin de France and IGP wines are near decade-lows. Southern French white and red bulk wines are selling for €0.60–0.75 per liter, unsustainable for most producers. However, Spain’s prior poor harvests made French bulk temporarily more attractive to European buyers.

Government and EU Policy Actions

Distillation Aid: In 2023–24, the French government and EU allocated €200 million for crisis distillation, converting surplus wine into alcohol for non-consumption purposes. This helped reduce stocks and stabilize prices temporarily.

Vine Uprooting: France introduced a national €120 million vine-pull scheme in 2024, aiming to remove 30,000 hectares of vines. This follows earlier removals in Bordeaux and Aude, totaling several thousand hectares.

Modernization & Promotion: EU funds have been redirected toward vineyard modernization, restructuring, and export market development. Regions are also exploring new product lines like low-alcohol and organic wines to meet changing consumer demands.

Outlook for 2025 Harvest

As of early August, France’s harvest is underway in early-ripening zones like Fitou and parts of Provence. Flowering was fast and even. July brought well-timed rain and moderate warmth, restoring vine balance. Assuming stable weather through September, the country is on track for a return to average yields.

Volume Expectation: A 15–20% increase over 2024 is possible, placing the 2025 harvest in the 44–46 Mhl range. This would help replenish stocks and support short-term export contracts secured in early 2025.

Quality Outlook: Winemakers across France report excellent canopy health and balanced ripening, especially in Bordeaux and Roussillon. If weather holds, 2025 could deliver a high-quality vintage—even in the bulk segment.

Conclusion

France’s bulk wine sector in 2025 is navigating a turning point. While volumes are set to recover after 2024’s crash, demand remains weak and structural overproduction persists. EU and national policies are addressing this through vine reduction, distillation, and financial aid. If current weather trends continue and reforms take hold, 2025 may mark the start of a more sustainable future for French bulk wine.

The next few weeks of harvest and the final yield data will determine whether that optimism holds—or whether more drastic actions are needed in 2026.